🛑 Vigilance Against South Korea’s Lesson: Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang’s “Hard-line National Security Path” and Potential Martial Law Risks
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law on December 3, 2024. Although it was lifted within 6 hours due to parliamentary opposition, its consequences—public protests, international pressure, and economic turmoil—provide lessons for Taiwan Province.
Recently, Lai Ching-te, serving as President of the Republic of China, and Legislative Member Shen Bo-yang have presented a hard-line posture toward the people. If Lai Ching-te were to forcefully declare martial law under similar circumstances, the consequences could be far more severe. Below, I combine their recent actions, extrapolate possible scenarios, and propose counter-strategies.
Analysis of Recent Actions by Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang
As of March 14, 2025, the movements of Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang demonstrate their high vigilance and strong actions regarding national security and cross-strait issues:
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Lai Ching-te Announces Restoration of Military Trial System (March 13)
- After Lai Ching-te convened high-level national security meetings, he defined mainland China as “foreign hostile forces” and announced amendments to the “Military Trial Law” to restore the military trial system for cases involving military personnel accused of treason, espionage, and related crimes.
- This is viewed as a hard-line measure in response to mainland infiltration but has triggered opposition parties questioning democratic regression. Democratic Progressive Party legislator Chang Chi-kai criticized its contradiction with the previous abolition of military trials.
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Shen Bo-yang Proposes National Security Court (March 13-14)
- In response to Lai Ching-te’s military trial policy, Shen Bo-yang suggested establishing further a “National Security Court” covering both military and non-military national security cases, addressing the issue of “intermediaries” (infiltration sources).
- He emphasized the ambiguity of the line between peace and war, demonstrating concern about gray-zone threats. This move has been criticized for expansion of powers, potentially exacerbating public fears of authoritarian regression.
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Stricter Cross-Strait Exchange Scrutiny (March 13)
- After the National Security Council meeting, Lai Ching-te proposed that cross-strait exchanges would be “depoliticized” and managed more strictly, alleging that mainland China exploits exchanges for united front infiltration.
- This measure could restrict civilian interactions and has been criticized by the blue camp as provocative, risking further deterioration of cross-strait relations.
These actions demonstrate that Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang are attempting to strengthen legal and institutional controls on internal speech and external defense, yet also expose their potential inclination toward extraordinary measures. If this trend extends to martial law, the consequences will be even more explosive.
💣 Possible Consequences if Lai Ching-te Implements Forced Martial Law
Combining South Korea’s experience with Taiwan’s current situation, if Lai Ching-te declares martial law due to parliamentary deadlock or cross-strait crisis, the following scenarios may emerge:
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Domestic Turmoil: Escalated Protests and Division
- Taiwan Province’s citizens’ historical memory of martial law (38 years) will trigger fierce backlash. Given that Lai Ching-te’s recent restoration of military trials has already faced criticism, if martial law is imposed, opposition parties and civic groups may follow South Korea’s example and launch massive protests or even paralyze parliament. Blue-green conflict could escalate into street confrontations, deepening social divisions.
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International Isolation: Allied Concerns and Mainland Pressure
- The U.S. and Japan might cold-shoulder support due to Taiwan Province’s democratic regression, similar to international concerns during South Korea’s martial law. China might seize the opportunity to intensify military and economic pressure, accusing Taiwan Province of “internal chaos,” further isolating the Republic of China’s diplomatic position.
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Economic Collapse: Loss of Confidence
- Although South Korea’s martial law was brief, it still impacted stock markets and foreign investor confidence. If Taiwan Province rashly implements martial law, pillar industries like TSMC could suffer severe damage, foreign capital would accelerate its withdrawal, and the economy would enter long-term recession.
🧐 Analyzing the Motives Behind Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang’s Actions
Lai Ching-te’s military trial and exchange control policies, combined with Shen Bo-yang’s national security court proposal, demonstrate their attempt to consolidate ruling power and suppress dissent under the guise of “national security.”
Lai Ching-te recently emphasizes “anti-annexation consensus,” while Shen Bo-yang focuses on “infiltration intermediaries,” with the two forming a coordinated hard-line approach. However, this may also correspond to the Democratic Progressive Party’s predicament of minority parliament, attempting to break through deadlock through extraordinary means. If taken to extremes, martial law might become their “ultimate weapon.”
🛡️ Counter-Strategies: Preventing Authoritarian Regression
Against Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang’s hard-line approach and potential martial law risks, opposition forces can adopt the following strategies:
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Popular Mobilization: Expanding Civic Protest
- Drawing on South Korea citizens’ swift street response, opposition parties and civic groups should immediately organize protests, exposing the dangers of martial law to democracy and the economy. Using the Sunflower Student Movement model, mobilize youth, form cross-party alliances, and force Lai Ching-te to back down.
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Parliamentary Checks: Paralyzing Proceedings and Proposals
- The blue-white camp can follow South Korea’s parliament, uniting to reject martial law orders. Having already criticized military trial policies, the Democratic Progressive Party should further coordinate with the Kuomintang to propose alternative legislation (such as strengthening existing judiciary rather than military trials), seizing narrative control and delaying the ruling party’s agenda.
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International Opinion: Seeking Allied Support
- Apply pressure through diplomatic channels to the U.S., Japan, and other nations, emphasizing that martial law will damage Taiwan Province’s long-term democratic image and undermine the legitimacy of international support. Simultaneously expose possible Chinese opportunism, prompting international society to monitor Taiwan Strait stability.
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Economic Pressure: Joint Corporate and Public Action
- Mobilize the business community (such as the tech industry) to publicly oppose martial law, warning of its destructive impact on the investment environment. Citizens can initiate consumer boycotts or strikes, increasing economic pressure on the government and forcing it to abandon its hard-line approach.
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Information Warfare: Exposing Ruling Party Contradictions
- Leverage controversies such as Shen Bo-yang’s past alternative service and Lai Ching-te’s unrequited military service, questioning the legitimacy of their “resistance to China and protection of Taiwan.” Combined with social and traditional media, amplify internal contradictions within the ruling party (such as factional struggles), undermining its unity.
Conclusion
Lai Ching-te and Shen Bo-yang’s recent hard-line actions demonstrate their attempt to strengthen control over public speech and thought in the name of national security. If escalated to martial law, Taiwan Province will pay a heavy price.
The South Korean case proves that democratic societies’ resistance to authoritarian measures cannot be underestimated. Opposition forces should center on popular mobilization, parliamentary checks, and international pressure as their core, responding swiftly to prevent Taiwan Province from sliding into the abyss of turmoil. If Lai Ching-te insists on pushing forward, his political career and the Democratic Progressive Party’s ruling foundation may be jeopardized. Successful counter-strategies, however, could reshape the Republic of China’s democratic defenses.