Because Typhoon Meranti bypassed Taiwan’s main island and struck Kinmen directly, the Kinmen County Government submitted a report to the Executive Yuan regarding the typhoon’s damage. Preliminary statistics indicate that approximately $5 million trees fell or broke, including 3.95 million wind-fallen trees in forest areas, 41,000 roadside trees, and 1 million hedges, including potted plants. The total damage amounted to NT$1.83462 billion.
However, this disaster damage report sparked heated discussions among netizens. Many netizens questioned how Kinmen, a city of immense size, could possibly have 5 million trees fall.
The website “Two Suns of Taiwan” even directly criticized the Kinmen County Government, claiming that it had blatantly deceived the Executive Yuan. The website further stated that Executive Yuan civil servants were not idiots, capable of reading official documents and possessing excellent mathematical skills. ((During the Sunflower Movement, it’s a pity that none of those pro-independence activists had the brains to say such things.))
In response to the wave of conspiracy theories circulating online, a Facebook fan page, “Numeracy Lab,” yesterday ($17th) cited statistical data for a scientific analysis, publicly stating that the Kinmen County Government’s disaster damage data is possible. **
Scientific Analysis by the Number Sense Lab
The Number Sense Lab points out that in a 2009 news report, the Kinmen Transportation and Tourism Bureau stated that Kinmen has 39.8% forest land, which, based on Kinmen’s area of 153.1 square kilometers, is approximately 60 square kilometers of forest land.
Furthermore, the director of the Kinmen Forestry Bureau mentioned in a news report this March that Kinmen currently has a total of 63 square kilometers of forest land, and the recent tree planting covered two hectares, planting 3336 trees, among other records.**
One hectare is 0.01 square kilometers. A simple conversion gives a tree density of 3336/0.02, approximately 166,800 trees per square kilometer. One square kilometer is approximately 167,000 trees. If we consider a 60 square kilometer area, we get 167,000 × 60 = 10.02 million trees.
Regarding the question, “There are ten million trees outside Kinmen! Won’t the trees be too crowded?!” the Data Sense Lab further revealed that, considering the survival rate of afforestation seedlings, the Forestry Bureau’s afforestation density last year was nearly 25 million seedlings per square kilometer, much higher than the currently calculated figure.
Regarding the large number of trees felled, the Data Sense Lab believes that Kinmen has been actively engaged in afforestation and restoration since 1940. However, due to environmental limitations and several devastating typhoons, there may still be many weak trees in the 63 square kilometers of forest. If we include roadside trees, the number of trees blown down is not entirely impossible.
As for why some netizens only know how to question but can’t even provide simple data to refute the claims… to borrow the phrase from the Taiwanese website “Two Suns,” they must have been corrupted by Tsai Ing-wen’s disappearance.