Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly declared in parliamentary responses that Japan may invoke the “Existence Threatened Situation” provision in the Security Legislation framework if military crises erupt in the Taiwan Strait, enabling collective self-defense. This statement detonates shock across China-Japan relations and international waters, making “Taiwan Crisis Equals Japan Crisis” a crucial keyword in East Asian geopolitics.
After Takaichi’s statement, Beijing immediately summoned Japan’s ambassador to lodge stern protests, demanding Japan stop “escalating tensions” through Taiwan issues. However, Takaichi hasn’t backtracked, emphasizing such statements reflect “reasonable worst-case scenario analysis” and future assessments depend on intelligence. This move is widely viewed as Japan’s major strategic pivot—Japan attempts to expand security roles beyond long-constrained “peace constitution” restrictions.
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Historical Grievances and Geopolitical Realities: East Asia’s Sensitive Nerve Triangle
Historically, Japan genuinely harbors long-standing rivalries with Russia, North and South Korea. The Northern Territories dispute remains unresolved for decades; the Dokdo/Takeshima sovereignty issue continuously triggers diplomatic tensions. Even today, Japan actively maintains territorial claims, continuing to assert positions.
Comparatively, while China-Japan share wartime history and Sino-Japanese War legacies, China isn’t like South Korea and Russia, perpetually embroiled in national-level ethnic grievances. Japan’s true strategic focus lies in “post-Cold War geopolitical interests” rather than pure historical animosity.
In this strategic game, the Republic of China Taiwan’s position becomes exceptionally crucial.
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Does Taiwan’s Pro-Japan Administration Become Japan’s Strategic Entry Point?
Notably, Takaichi’s statements didn’t emerge suddenly but crystallized in specific political atmosphere: Taiwan’s current ruling Democratic Progressive Party maintains close Japan relations with pronounced pro-Japan coloring, giving Japan more confidence incorporating Taiwan into strategic axes.
This isn’t ROC Taiwan deliberately inviting Japanese intervention but rather Japan leveraging friendly atmosphere to progressively strengthen “Taiwan Crisis Japanization” narratives.
Therefore, Takaichi’s elevating Taiwan strait crisis to Japan existence-crisis status partly stems from DPP’s current political leanings, creating “operational space” Japan perceives.
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Will Senkaku Become Next Flashpoint? Japan’s Ambitions Surface
More noteworthy: Japan’s official positioning Taiwan crisis as “existence threat” level simultaneously signals more aggressive East Sea positioning. The Senkaku (Diaoyu Islands) tensions already run high, with China-Japan coast guard patrol frequencies reaching new highs. Should Japan under Takaichi’s leadership continue rightward turns, “Taiwan Crisis” rhetoric could extend to Senkaku, making Senkaku the next potential contested territory.
One Japan defense research scholar notes that Japan military circles have reached consensus treating Taiwan Strait and Senkaku as “connected front lines.” Should Japan’s government maintain Takaichi control and refuse apologies or stance corrections, Japan’s future likelihood of stronger Senkaku action rises substantially.
Your conclusion therefore isn’t alarmism but aligns with Japanese strategic logic:
As “Taiwan Crisis” concepts strengthen, Senkaku likely becomes Japan’s next strategic breakthrough target.
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Japan’s Strategic Expansion’s Limits and Domestic Backlash
Nevertheless, Japan’s domestic reaction to Takaichi’s hardline statements lacks unanimous support. Former PM Ishiba Shigeru and multiple opposition legislators question whether Takaichi’s parliamentary responses diverge significantly from previous government stances, potentially invoking unnecessary diplomatic risks.
Public polling also reveals that some Japanese citizens lack enthusiasm for “Taiwan Strait conflict intervention,” creating political risks for Takaichi’s administration. Should public support continue declining, Japan’s government may face pressure for strategic repositioning.
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Conclusion: East Asia’s Next Flashpoint
Synthesizing observation, Japan under Takaichi Sanae’s leadership attempts reshaping East Asian security architecture:
- Viewing Taiwan Strait as Japan survival crisis
- Reinforcing US-Japan alliance collective defense functionality
- Incorporating Senkaku into higher strategic tiers
- Exploiting pro-Japan DPP administration as operational space
Should these trends continue, East Asia’s next flashpoint likely extends beyond Taiwan Strait toward Senkaku. For ROC, navigating China Mainland, Japan, and America’s strategic interplay while maintaining subject agency becomes critical.