Abstract
This study employs population growth models to estimate the timing of Austronesian migration to Taiwan, assuming an initial group size of 200 to 500 people, and explores how they reached a population of approximately 40,000 by 1650 AD. Considering the advantages of Taiwan’s island environment (stable climate, marine resources, and agricultural potential), an exponential growth model was applied with an assumed annual growth rate ($r$) of $0.3%$ to $0.5%$ to calculate the time ($t$) required to grow from an initial population ($P_0$) to the final population ($P_t$).
The results indicate that an initial population of 200 would require approximately 1,766 to 1,060 years (roughly 116 BC to 590 AD), while an initial population of 500 would require approximately 1,461 to 876 years (roughly 189 AD to 774 AD). This suggests that the migration of Austronesian peoples may have occurred much later than traditional hypotheses (such as 4000 BC) and that they were not the earliest inhabitants of the island, challenging the common perception of them as “Indigenous.” This also implies that several ancient ruins unearthed on Taiwan may have no direct connection to the current Austronesian groups.
📖 Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Methodology
- Data Sources
- Population Growth Model
- Assumptions
- Results
- Time and Growth Rate Estimates
- Environmental Impact
- Discussion
- Conclusion
Introduction
The migration of Austronesian peoples is a pivotal event in Taiwan’s prehistory. By the mid-17th century (1650 AD), their population was estimated at about 40,000, distributed across scattered tribal communities. Traditional views assume Austronesians arrived around 4000 BC and regard them as the island’s “Indigenous” people.
However, archaeological and genetic research indicates that earlier “Negrito” (小黑人) groups likely inhabited the island prior to the Austronesians, suggesting the latter were not the first residents. This study utilizes mathematical modeling to test whether a later arrival is more consistent with known population figures.
Methodology
Data Sources
- Population Data: Approximately 40,000 Austronesians in 1650 AD, based on early European (specifically Dutch) records.
- Environmental Factors: Taiwan’s marine resources and stable climate supported higher growth potential than environments like the Amazon.
- Growth Rates: Prehistoric rates typically range from $0.1%$ to $0.5%$. Given Taiwan’s advantages, we assume $r = 0.3%$ to $0.5%$.
Population Growth Model
We use the exponential growth formula: $$P_t = P_0 \cdot e^{r \cdot t}$$
To solve for time ($t$): $$t = \frac{\ln(P_t / P_0)}{r}$$
Assumptions
- Initial Population ($P_0$): Assumed to be a viable migratory group of 200 to 500 individuals.
- Growth Rate ($r$): Assumed to be $0.3%–0.5%$, higher than the $0.1%–0.3%$ typically seen in Amazonian tribes.
Results
Time and Growth Rate Estimates
Case 1: Initial Population $P_0 = 200$
| Growth Rate ($r$) | Time ($t$) (Years) | Migration Period (AD/BC) |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3%$ | ~1,766 | 116 BC |
| $0.4%$ | ~1,325 | 325 AD |
| $0.5%$ | ~1,060 | 590 AD |
Case 2: Initial Population $P_0 = 500$
| Growth Rate ($r$) | Time ($t$) (Years) | Migration Period (AD/BC) |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3%$ | ~1,461 | 189 AD |
| $0.4%$ | ~1,096 | 554 AD |
| $0.5%$ | ~876 | 774 AD |
Impact of Environmental Advantages
Taiwan’s environment supported these higher growth rates through:
- Marine Resources: Fishing provided a stable protein source.
- Climate Stability: A temperate climate reduced health stressors.
- Agricultural Potential: Neolithic rice and tuber cultivation allowed for higher carrying capacities.
Discussion
This study shows that Austronesians could have reached the 40,000-person mark by 1650 AD even if they arrived as late as 950 BC to 150 AD. This is significantly later than the traditional 4000 BC estimate. If they arrived in 4000 BC, the growth rate would have been an unnaturally low $0.08%$.
Archaeological evidence of Neolithic cultures like the Dabenkeng (大坌坑) appears around 4000 BC, but significant population booms likely coincided with later developments in agriculture and trade. The fact that they replaced earlier “Negrito” groups confirms they were not the absolute first inhabitants. This timeline aligns more closely with later sites like the Yuanshan Culture (圓山文化).
Conclusion
By back-calculating from the 1650 AD population of 40,000, we estimate that the Austronesian migration likely occurred between 950 BC and 150 AD. This challenges the “Indigenous” status of these groups by suggesting a much more recent arrival and reinforcing the presence of earlier prehistoric inhabitants. This research provides a new perspective on Taiwan’s prehistory based on demographic dynamics and environmental factors.
References
- Archaeological studies on Austronesian migration and Taiwan’s Neolithic cultures.
- Comparative prehistoric population dynamics of Amazonian indigenous tribes.
- 17th-century Dutch historical records of Taiwan’s population.
- Genetic evidence regarding Austronesian origins and “Negrito” populations.